Student enrollment in South Whidbey schools will continue its more than decade-long downward slide in the upcoming school year.

The current predicted loss for the 2015-16 school year is 52 full-time equivalent (FTE) students. That’s hardly a surprise for school administrators.

District enrollment has declined at a rate of about 30 to 40 students per year, according to Superintendent Jo Moccia. That’s tough on the budget, as the state’s funding model is based on student numbers — more students equals more money. The good news, however, is the decrease is expected to level out sometime in the next five years.

“We are declining more slowly and we will get to a point where we will level out,” Moccia said. “I think we’re going to level out at about 75 kids per (graduating) class.”

Given the trend on South Whidbey, Assistant Superintendent of Business Dan Poolman wasn’t surprised by the coming year’s predictions. Rather, the “crux of this story” is that enrollment drives the state’s funding system.

“Every student is worth a certain dollar amount,” Poolman said. “As we have fewer students, our funding decreases and so we have to make those adjustments within our spending habits.”

In an effort to stabilize and remain efficient, the district has been consolidating its resources. They have rented out four buildings — the Bayview School, district office, two-story building at the middle school, and auditorium — as an alternative to closing the entire middle school.

“There are many, many more people above the age of 55 than there are young people.”

Jo Moccia,

superintendent

South Whidbey School District

Moccia predicted that renting out the facilities equates to roughly $100,000 of income per year.

Poolman also saw his role expanded to running the transportation department as well as food services.

The biggest dip in enrollment happened in the 2009-10 school year when it dropped a whopping 9 percent, from 1,757 in 2008-09 to 1,596.

Traditionally, according to Poolman, a FTE student costs about $6,000, so the loss in funding can be substantial at times.

“Considering that 85 percent of our budget is salary and benefits, we have limited ability to adjust other places,” Poolman said.

Though enrollment decline is expected to flatten out, less clear are the problem and the solutions. Moccia says one issue is the average age of island residents is increasing. There are fewer young families than in years past, which means less students.

“There are many, many more people above the age of 55 than there are young people,” Moccia said. “There’s limited employment on the island, so I think we’re doing a really good job of educating our kids and people are happy with what’s happening. There’s always improvements to be made. I think the enrollment issue is really bigger than the school district.”

The 2010 U.S. Census found that 68 percent of Langley’s population is 45 years old or older, which is a 12 percent increase from 2000. The Port of South Whidbey also did a recent study of its district boundaries, which are the same as the school district’s, and found that 62 percent of the population is 45 or older.

The island’s economy and limited career opportunities are also factors, particularly the lack of living wage jobs, according to Port of South Whidbey Commissioner Curt Gordon. Many young and middle-class families attempt to commute to off-island jobs but give up because of the expense and headache.

“The fact that it’s not easy to commute in and out of this community helps keep middle-class earners from wanting to stay here,” Gordon said.

Gordon has tried to improve ease of travel for commuters over the past five year or six years, but said not many of his efforts have come to fruition.

Gordon also said changing demographics may also be a factor. Retirees moving to South Whidbey like the area’s rural flavor and don’t want to see growth of medium-impact industries, which can hinder investors or new businesses from setting up shop.